Assumptions & Methodology
Mitra EV Assumption Governance
Baselines are versioned constants keyed by scenario + vehicle class + region. Model Baseline values come from maintained benchmark sets. User Override values are operator-provided inputs for a specific run and are always tagged for provenance.
Governance
- Model Baseline: Versioned constants selected by simulation context (scenario, class, region) with scheduled update cadence.
- User Override: User-entered values during a specific run; these values supersede defaults and are flagged in provenance outputs.
- Auditability: Every run returns resolved assumptions with source tags (`model_default` or `override`), timestamps, and stale indicators.
| Assumption | Definition | Default | How Established | Source Class | Update Cadence | Sensitivity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diesel Price per Gallon | Fuel baseline used to compute ICE hard-cost trajectory. | $4.20 / gal (Realistic baseline) | Scenario baseline by region; override allowed per run. | Market index | Monthly baseline refresh | High |
| Maintenance Cost per Mile (ICE) | Maintenance burden for current ICE operations. | $0.21 / mile (Class 4 baseline) | Vehicle-class baseline constants; override allowed. | Internal benchmark + industry studies | Quarterly | High |
| Include LCFS Credits | Switch to include or exclude LCFS offset treatment. | Enabled | Boolean input at run-time. | Policy toggle | Per run | Medium |
| LCFS Price per Credit | Credit valuation applied to offset module. | $88 / credit (baseline) | Scenario baseline by region; user override optional. | Gov benchmark / market index | Monthly | High |
| Stress Haircut Percent | Downside haircut applied to offset assumptions. | 25% (Realistic baseline) | Scenario-defined default, adjustable by operator. | Internal benchmark | Per run | Medium |
| Representative ICE Fuel Economy | Fuel efficiency proxy by vehicle class. | 8.9 mi/gal (Class 4) | Class-level baseline matrix. | Internal benchmark | Quarterly | Medium |
| EVaaS Cost per Mile | Service-cost baseline for EVaaS lane. | $0.62 / mile (Realistic baseline) | Scenario and class baseline constants. | Internal benchmark | Quarterly | High |
| Soft Risk Premium | Soft risk multiplier in ICE risk stack. | 7% | Model coefficient by scenario. | Internal benchmark | Semi-annual | Medium |
| Aging Penalty per Year | Compounding maintenance risk as fleet ages. | 4% | Model coefficient by class. | Internal benchmark | Semi-annual | Medium |
| Fuel Inflation | Inflation curve for ICE fuel exposure projection. | 3% | Scenario macro baseline. | Market index | Quarterly | High |
| EVaaS Inflation | Inflation curve for EVaaS operating costs. | 2% | Scenario macro baseline. | Internal benchmark | Quarterly | Medium |
| LCFS Credits per 1,000 Miles | Credit generation factor for offset line. | 4.5 credits / 1,000 miles | Region and class baseline coefficient. | Gov benchmark | Monthly | High |